As the final decades of the 21st century unfold, humanity faces a crisis unparalleled in its history. Where previously had been resource scarcity, climate change has taken centre stage as the most immediate threat to world peace.* Natural and human systems alike face the prospect of permanent collapse. Of the nine planetary boundaries, three â biodiversity, climate change and nitrogen levels â had already been passed by the year 2000.* Now humanity has shot past its limit on land use, freshwater and ocean acidification, as well.* Population, having reached a peak in the 2050s, is now going into decline as millions perish due to war, starvation and environmental disasters. New and terrifying threats have also emerged, such as nanotechnology terrorism.** The global economy, already undergoing rapid change, has entered a period of intense disruption, with traditional free market capitalism beset with problems it is structurally incapable of addressing.* Corporations which have operated for many decades seem to disappear overnight, unable to adapt. So too will governments have to change, as increasingly angry and frightened citizens pile pressure on world leaders to either adjust or step down. Every organisation and institution survives or falls according to its response to this crisis. By 2100, the world will be unrecognisable compared to its earlier status. Political, economic, social, technological and environmental change will have hit so swiftly that these four decades will appear unlike any other period in history.
Much of the world in the 2060s has moved into a rapidly degrading geopolitical situation. Driving this crisis is the seemingly unending stream of climate refugees attempting to cross national borders.**Â Throughout this period, increasing numbers of equatorial countries are reclassified as failed states, with collapsed governments and directionless populations. Civil war is becoming common in many regions as a result.**Â For many of the countries adjacent to these equatorial regions, this is leading to severe political and social strife, as desperate measures are introduced to either keep refugees out or try to adjust.*Â This is a particular problem between Europe and Africa. The Mediterranean has become highly militarised â with Italy, Spain and Greece especially hard hit, resulting in hardline, nationalistic governments coming to power. Many European countries are in political deadlock over food and water sharing. At the other end of Africa, the previously stable country of South Africa is being overrun by refugees from Botswana.*
Similar problems are proliferating in Asia as well. Bangladesh is slowly being emptied of its populace, with many fleeing to neighbouring India. The latter, however, is unable to support this surge. As a result, vast shantytowns have formed along the Bangladesh-India border, home to many millions of people. Lawless, overcrowded, and with disease epidemics spreading rapidly, this region has become one of the most dangerous in the world.*Â China too is facing a political crisis as divisions grow between coastal areas and the eastern plateaus. The country’s population has fallen into steady decline as many people move northward to more stable climates.*Â Russia is now negotiating with Beijing to stem this tide of Chinese refugees, further dividing the region. Meanwhile, much of the Middle East has been reduced to a wasteland of anarchy, with only a few semi-stable countries remaining.*
