By Reagan Reese
For weeks, pundits, analysts, pollsters and politicians have been scrutinizing every piece of data coming out of early voting and last minute polls.
There’s more data to parse than possible — amid the craziness, here are five key developments that could indicate who is likely to win the White House:
1. Early Returns In Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, for obvious reason, has been identified by both campaigns as the state most likely to put them over 270 electoral votes.
In June, FiveThirtyEight published its election model, which determined Pennsylvania to be the most likely “tipping point.”
GOP pollster Frank Luntz told Fox News Monday that if former President Donald Trump can win either Pennsylvania or Michigan, he will win the election.
“We do not project either candidate reaching 270 electoral votes without winning Pennsylvania, which is currently a dead tie,” Decision Desk HQ recently reported. Various polls have the two candidates locked in a dead heat.
This election cycle, the Republican National Committee (RNC) has outsourced a majority of its get-out-the-vote operation to grassroots groups who are barnstorming Pennsylvania to target low-propensity voters, like hunters and gun owners.
“80,000 votes [in Pennsylvania] decided 2020, so let’s break that down. There are 90,000 Amish in Pennsylvania. That is the election. So we are courting the Amish vote, and we’re going to farmers markets, and we’re going to their villages, their towns. We’re meeting them where they are,” Scott Presler, the founder of Early Vote Action, previously told the Daily Caller.
“There are 80,000 truckers in Pennsylvania … a lot of them don’t vote because they’re driving rigs on election day. So we’re trying to get them the mail-in ballot. We’re trying to get them to vote early, because if they’re driving how are they going to vote? That 80,000 number could very well win Pennsylvania,” he continued.
Meanwhile, the Harris campaign told reporters this weekend it’s knocked on 807,000 doors in the Keystone State.
It was a beautiful day to door knock in PA for @KamalaHarris & @Tim_Walz! #Harris_Walz2024 pic.twitter.com/mMnl9yh4Ua
— Casey Peeks (@kcpeeks) November 3, 2024
Pennsylvania News
➡️ In 2020, democrats had an advantage of more than 1.1 million mail-in ballots
➡️ Today, in 2024, democrats only have an advantage of 400,000.
-700,000
Yes, this is good for Trump.
Return your outstanding mail-in ballots & vote on Tuesday.
Trump 2024
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) November 2, 2024
2. How Close Is Virginia?
Virginia is most likely Harris’s for the taking, but her margin could be telling.
“I believe Trump needs to come within 7 points in VA to win the White House. Anything below 6 and he’s very likely to win, and if it’s somehow below 5 then he is winning decisively,” Christian Heines, political analyst, election modeler and co-host of “Making the Argument” podcast, told the Caller.
In 2020, President Joe Biden won Virginia by ten points. A year later, the White House was stunned as Republican Glenn Youngkin pulled off an upset and won the governor’s seat. On Friday, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College published one last poll, showing the vice president ahead of Trump in the state by ten points, 51% to 41%.
Talk of Virginia being in play was more prominent when Biden was still the Democratic nominee, but the GOP re-run the Youngkin playbook in hopes of making the state competitive.
“5,000+ GOTV volunteers will be augmented by 500 election attorneys at polling locations across Virginia,” Rich Anderson, the Virginia GOP Chair, previously told the Caller.
Virginia could be an early indicator as its one of only two competitive states, along with Georgia, with polls closing at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
“The 7th District is one of the most hotly contested in the country, and if Trump is winning it it’s because of strong rural turnout in the western end of the district around Culpeper where I live, combined with him making gains with Hispanic and Black voters in Prince William County. If he’s winning there, he’s in great shape in Georgia and PA. Even if he loses the 7th but keeps it close it’s likely a sign he’s more favorable than not to win,” Heines told the Caller.
3. Muslims In Michigan
The uncommitted vote dampened a Biden primary victory in Michigan and the same voters could spoil a Harris White House bid on Tuesday.
There has been a sizable effort within the swing state to punish the vice president for her Middle East policy, so much so that some campaign officials are reportedly worried the state could crack the “Blue Wall.”.
🧵 President Trump took to Truth Social to voice concerns that Arab-Americans are disaffected with Kamala Harris.
The Daily Caller recently did a deep dive on dissatisfaction with Harris in Muslim communities in Michigan that touched on some of the same concerns. pic.twitter.com/QQS0X3zGwt
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 21, 2024
In the primary, 81.1% of Democratic voters chose Biden, but 13.3% — more than 100,000 people — chose the uncommitted option in protest of the president. The protests didn’t stop when Harris became the nominee. The Muslim organization “Abandon Biden” rebranded to “Abandon Harris.” Another Muslim organization, “Drive for 75,” previously told the Caller that they ran mathematical calculations to determine that if 75% of their community turns out in the 2024 election then there is a 99.9% chance Trump wins the state…
READ FULL ARTICLE HERE… (dailycaller.com)
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