Number of Ukrainians open to territorial concessions growing – poll

The number of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions to Moscow in exchange for peace has tripled over the past year, according to a recent poll by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). The survey released on Tuesday shows that 32% of respondents said they believe that “for the sake of achieving peace as soon as possible and preserving its independence, Ukraine could relinquish some of its territory,” compared to just 10% who said the same in May 2023.

The poll was conducted in two waves, on May 16-22 and June 20-25, and involved 1,067 and 2,008 respondents, respectively.

The number of Ukrainians open to territorial concessions remained below 10% throughout the first year of the conflict, but has steadily grown since May 2023, according to previous polls conducted by the KIIS.

In late 2023, after the much-hyped Ukrainian summer counteroffensive ended in a failure, 19% of respondents said they would agree to ceding some land in exchange for peace. In February 2024, when the Russian troops launched an offensive of their own and seized the strategic Donbass town of Avdeevka, this number grew to 26%.

In May 2024, when Moscow’s forces launched another offensive in Kharkov Region in northeastern Ukraine, it further rose to 32%, according to the KIIS. The number of those opposing any concessions fell from 74% to 55% over the same period.

As part of the latest survey, the respondents were also presented with several models of a potential peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow. The first option saw Russia retaining control of Crimea and the four other former Ukrainian territories, and Kiev abandoning its NATO ambitions and only joining the EU. This model was backed by 38% of respondents, with 30% calling it a “difficult” but “acceptable” option. More than half of respondents (54%) rejected it.

The second option had Russia keeping the newly acquired territories but allowing Ukraine to join both NATO and the EU. Almost half of respondents backed it (47%), while 38% rejected it.

The third option had Moscow ceding control over the regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye back to Kiev, but keeping the two Donbass republics and Crimea. In this scenario, Ukraine would also join both the EU and NATO. This model was backed by 57% of respondents, with 20% calling it an “easily acceptable deal.” A third of respondents rejected it.

The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine broke down in the spring of 2022, with both sides accusing each other of making unrealistic demands. Russia President Vladimir Putin has said that Ukraine must become a neutral country and renounce claims to the new Russian regions for any peace talks to succeed.