What if Trump’s tariffs actually make sense?

Let me play devil’s advocate for a minute. I’m not here to defend President Donald Trump’s tariffs. But I do want to push back against the way the conversation around them often unfolds – dismissing them offhand with a smug “well, that’s just dumb,” without any regard for the broader economic context, either at home or globally.

Yes, Trump often shoots from the hip. He lies outright, makes rookie mistakes in his speeches, and fumbles the details. But behind the bluster is a surprisingly coherent strategy – one that wasn’t cobbled together by fools. You don’t have to agree with it to at least try to understand what it is.

I don’t claim to have all the answers (frankly, I’m suspicious of anyone who says they truly understand what’s going on inside Trump’s head), but here’s how I see it.

What you need to know about global imbalances

At their core, global trade imbalances are the result of mismatches between national savings and investment. In countries such as China, Germany, Japan, and major oil exporters, savings tend to outpace domestic investment – capital has to go somewhere, so it flows abroad. This shows up as a trade surplus…