The Balkan The Western Balkans are witnessing a pronounced military buildup as of late 2025, characterized by multi-billion-euro acquisitions of tanks, howitzers, missile systems, and drones. This “pre-New Year’s armament” surge—driven by lingering post-Yugoslav tensions, Russian influence, and NATO/EU integration pressures—has heightened fears of an arms race. Serbia dominates spending, outpacing the rest of the region combined by a factor of five, while smaller states like Kosovo and Croatia pursue targeted modernizations to bolster deterrence. These developments are not isolated; they intersect with strategic alliances and external actors, particularly Turkey, amid simmering risks of conflict in Kosovo and Bosnia. From a Serbian perspective, this constellation appears as deliberate encirclement, exacerbating Belgrade’s sense of vulnerability. However, Albanian and Kosovar sources frame it as defensive necessity against perceived Serbian irredentism.
Military expenditures across the region have surged 40-120% since 2020, fueled by hybrid threats, Russia’s Ukraine war spillover, and NATO interoperability goals. Serbia’s procurements signal a hedging strategy—blending Western, Russian, Chinese, and Israeli systems—while others lean toward NATO-compatible gear. Key deals emphasize ground forces (tanks, howitzers) and precision strike capabilities (missiles, drones), raising concerns over the 1996 Sub-Regional Arms Control Agreement, which caps heavy weapons post-Bosnian War.
For Serbia, key acquisitions in 2024-2025 include additional 155mm Nora B-52 NG howitzers, PULS rocket artillery systems, T-72 tank modernizations, 12 Rafale fighter jets, CH-92A/Hermes 900 drones, HQ-22/HQ-17 air defenses, and Elbit artillery, ISTAR, and electronic warfare systems, with estimated values of €2.7 billion for the Rafales, $1.6 billion for Elbit systems, and $335 million for drones and rockets. The strategic focus is on long-range strike, air superiority, and “secret” stockpiling for prolonged conflict, with suppliers from France, Israel, China, Russia, and the UAE.
Kosovo’s key acquisitions include Javelin anti-tank missiles, Black Hawk helicopters, thousands of Skydagger/Bayraktar kamikaze drones, and an ammunition production line, totaling around €430 million from 2021-2025, sourced from the US and Turkey, with a focus on anti-tank defense, drone swarms, and domestic ammo for sustainability.
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