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An Inflationary Black Swan Is Haunting the Fed

By David Stockman

The laziness of the financial press appears to know no bounds. For instance, this gem from the Wall Street Journal purports to explain today’s red hot inflation number:

There are several reasons behind this bout of high inflation. First, the economy is strong and employers have been adding more than 400,000 jobs for 11 straight months.

Really?

In July 2019 the non-farm jobs count (purple line) of 150.921 million was virtually identical to the March 2022 figure of 150.925 million. To be exact, we are talking about a 4,000 jobs difference in an economy with a potential work force of more than 200 million.

Nevertheless, despite a 4.2 million increase in the population since then, which has made the labor market slightly looser, the Y/Y inflation rate in March 2022 of 8.55%was 4.7 times higher than the rate of 1.82% back then…

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