The latest Emerson national poll finds that in a hypothetical matchup, only 42 percent of Democratic voters would choose President Joe Biden to be the party’s nominee in the 2024 presidential election. 17 percent say Vice President Kamala Harris, and 12 percent say Vermont Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders.
This is what can sometimes happen to an incumbent president with high inflation, an overheating economy and an imminent recession. Party voters can look inward for a new standard bearer to replace the weak incumbent, often during a recession.
1912, 1932, 1952, 1968, 1976, 1980 and 1992 all saw incumbent presidents with significant primary challenges. In every single case, the incumbent president either declined to seek reelection, as with Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson in 1952 and 1968, respectively, after poor showings in the New Hampshire primary, or did win their party’s primary or national nominating convention only to go on to be easily defeated, as with William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. A solid record of defeat.
