by Marco Cáceres
If you do a Google search for the current prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States, you will likely come across the rate of 1 in 36. That’s the rate that was confirmed by an analysis published in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) epidemiological digest Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) on Mar. 24, 2023.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
The rate was based on a survey of eight-year-old children performed in 2020 as part of a surveillance program known as the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network operating in 11 states (Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, Tennessee, Utah and Wisconsin).
The 1 in 36 rate is woefully out of date, but it appears to be the most authoritative figure cited online for how common autism has become among American children. It is no longer a stretch to call this disease or neurological condition an epidemic—a crisis of historical proportions. And the scary thing is that this epidemic continues to grow with no end in sight. The rate reported by the CDC in November 2021 for its 2018 survey was 1 in 44. Previous rates were 1 in 54 in 2016, 1 in 59 in 2014, 1 in 69 in 2012, 1 in 68 in 2010, 1 in 88 in 2008, 1 in 110 in 2006, 1 in 125 in 2004, 1 in 150 in 2002, and 1 in 150 in 2000.3
In the 1990s, the autism rates ranged from 1 in 2,500 to 1 in 1,000. During the 1960s, the autism rate was estimated at 1 in 10,000. By the 1980s, the rate had doubled to 2 in 10,000.3
The CDC has not yet published the results of its 2022 ADDM Network survey, but it’s unlikely any new figure is going to show a reversal in this long-standing worsening trend. Based on history, it is likely that the next ADDM Network surveys will show autism rates of around 1 in 30 in 2022 and 1 in 25 for 2024.
We are continuing to move steadily down the path of the unthinkable scenario of 1 in 2 children in the U.S. diagnosed with autism, predicted by Dr. Stephanie Seneff of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 2014.11
JAMA Network Open Study
A study published in JAMA Network Open on Oct. 30, 2024 found the rate of autism among children five to eight years old had risen to 1 in 33 (30.3 per 1,000) in 2022, and 1 in 34.7 (28.8 per 1,000) in children four years of age and younger.12 13 14 15
That study, led by Luke Grosvenor, PhD of Kaiser Permanente’s Northern California research division, was based on electronic U.S. health and insurance claims records for more than nine million people per year from 2011 to 2022. The data was taken from 12 sites participating in the Mental Health Research Network—a consortium of research centers “embedded within large, diverse health care systems.”12 13 14 15
According to the study, a total of 12,264,003 members were enrolled in the network in 2022, including 2,359,359 children, or 19.2 percent of the total.12
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