Behind the illusion of deadlock: what’s really happening in the Ukraine conflict

By Vasily Kashin
Political Science PhD, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies, HSE

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, talk of a “stalemate” in Ukraine has become a convenient Western refrain – the kind of phrase that sounds sober while disguising strategic drift. In reality, what looks static on the battlefield conceals deep political movement, both in Washington and in the war itself.

Trump’s early approach to the conflict was loud but logical: impose a ceasefire along existing lines, freeze the situation, and move on. His mix of threats and incentives – sanctions on one hand, the promise of renewed partnership on the other – echoed the same objectives the Biden administration privately pursued in 2024.

The difference was style. Biden lacked the political strength and health to launch a diplomatic campaign; Kamala Harris might have, had she succeeded him. Trump, by contrast, acted decisively. He made his will known to the generals, the allies, and the public in his usual unfiltered fashion.