Breitbart By John Carney
Economic Indicators Predict a Big Trump Win
The establishment media’s coverage of Donald Trump’s rally in Madison Square Garden makes it clear that the Democrats’ closing case will center on stirring fear and loathing for Republicans. Yet the upcoming election will likely turn on the issue Americans have repeatedly called most pressing: the economy.
Economist Robert J. Gordon’s recent study—”How Do Electoral Votes, Presidential Approval, and Consumer Sentiment Respond to Economic Indicators?”—offers a data-driven forecast for the Biden-Harris administration’s reelection chances, and the numbers don’t look promising for the Democrats. Gordon, an expert in growth and long-term productivity, uses two key indicators—growth per capita and “excess inflation”—to measure electoral sentiment based on real economic impacts rather than the distractions of the day. His findings? The GOP holds a significant advantage as November approaches.
Central to Gordon’s analysis is a simple, enduring question: Are voters better off now than they were four years ago? His model, grounded in clear, measurable data, sidesteps complex theories and focuses on what most voters experience firsthand: economic growth and inflation. The result is clear: inflation under Biden has risen faster than it did during Trump’s term, and voters have felt the strain. Historically, such conditions—high inflation and lackluster growth—correlate with diminished support for the incumbent.
Gordon’s approach refreshingly cuts through the pollsters’ obsession with demographic slices and cultural hot buttons. Instead, he hones in on the real-world issues that matter to families: how far their dollar stretches today compared to yesterday. The model’s message is simple: while party loyalty may pull some, economic conditions remain the core driver of voter behavior. With prices for essentials such as groceries and housing climbing, many voters may be questioning whether another four years of the same policies are in their best interest.
Historically, Gordon’s model has been remarkably accurate, especially before 2000, in predicting electoral shifts based on economic indicators. It captured iconic electoral moments like Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide, where economic recovery post-Carter boosted voter confidence even amid concerns over inflation. This reflects a fundamental truth of American politics: financial well-being often outweighs even strong political preferences, especially in challenging times…
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