Военное обозрение By Top War
The modernization of China’s nuclear arsenal has accelerated in recent years, with both qualitative and significant quantitative growth in the arsenal. In the latest edition of the Nuclear Notebook, US experts estimate that China currently possesses approximately 500 nuclear warheads, with many more in production to arm future delivery systems. China is now believed to have one of the fastest-growing nuclear arsenals among the nine nuclear powers. The latest study was conducted by the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project staff – Director Hans M. Christensen, Senior Fellow Matt Korda, Fellow Eliana Jones and Herbert Scoville Jr., and Mackenzie Knight Peace Fellow.
Over the past five years, China has significantly expanded its ongoing nuclear modernization program, introducing more types and quantities of nuclear weapons than ever before. Over the entire past 2023, China continued the construction of position areas for three new missile armies, the construction of 330 silo launchers for solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), expanded the construction of new silos for its DF-5 liquid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles, and is developing new types of intercontinental ballistic missiles and advanced strategic delivery systems and is likely producing large numbers of surplus warheads, according to US scientists, for possible loading into these systems once they are deployed.
China has also increased its dual-use DF-26 medium-range ballistic missile force, which appears to have completely replaced the aging DF-21 medium-range nuclear missile. At sea, China is converting its Type 094 ballistic missile submarines to carry longer-range JL-3 SLBMs. In addition, China recently transferred its bombers to an operational nuclear mission and is developing an air-launched ballistic missile that can be equipped with nuclear capability. Overall, China’s nuclear expansion is one of the largest and fastest modernization campaigns among the nine nuclear powers.
American experts estimate that China has produced approximately 440 nuclear warheads for delivery by land- and sea-based ballistic missiles and bombers. It is believed that approximately 60 more warheads have been produced, and many more are in production to eventually arm additional mobile and silo-based ICBMs and MRBMs.
The Pentagon’s 2023 report to Congress states that China’s nuclear arsenal currently includes more than 500 warheads. The Pentagon estimates that China’s arsenal will increase to about 2030 warheads by 1000, many of which will likely be “deployed at a higher level of readiness“, and most of “located in systems capable of reaching the continental United States“(U.S. Department of Defense, 2023). If nuclear arsenal expansion continues at the current rate, China could have approximately 2035 nuclear warheads in its arsenal by 1500 (U.S. Department of Defense, 2022).
Some US government estimates regarding the growth of China’s nuclear weapons stockpile have previously proven to be inaccurate. The Pentagon’s latest forecast appears to simply apply the same growth rate algorithms for the number of new warheads added to the arsenal between 2019 and 2021 to subsequent years through 2035. The projected growth trajectory is entirely feasible.
Research methodology:
The analyzes and assessments made in Nuclear Notebook are based on a combination of open sources:
1. government data (for example, government statements, declassified documents, budget information, military parades, and treaty disclosure data);
2. non-government data (eg, media reports, think tank analysis, and industry publications);
3. commercial satellite images. Because each of these sources provides different and limited information that is subject to varying degrees of uncertainty, we cross-check each data point using multiple sources and supplementing them with private interviews with officials…
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