War on the Rocks COVID-19 has become a pretext for autocratic rulers around the world to grab more power. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Philippine’s President Rodrigo Duterte, Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, and Jordan’s Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz all expanded their authorities due to the COVID-19 crisis. They can now rule by decree, impose curfews, deploy troops to the streets, and interfere in the private sector, among other things. In many liberal democracies like Germany, France, and Denmark, leaders also took center stage and used their power to employ harsh measures in the fight against the novel coronavirus.
Surprisingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be doing quite the opposite — He has withdrawn from policymaking and expanded the authorities of Russia’s regional officials. This unusual development signals that the Kremlin has reached the limits of its power at home. While not suggesting that Putin is weak, his approach to the pandemic indicates that the Russian president is only as strong as his current system allows.
Putin’s Pandemic Response
Russia’s reaction to COVID-19 started with closing the border with China in late January, even before Russia had its first confirmed cases. Measures included deporting Chinese and other foreign citizens, and introducing sporadic body temperature checks at airports and in the Moscow subway. In mid-March, Russia banned entry of foreign nationals, and all Russian regions cancelled school classes and restricted public gatherings. Throughout this period, Putin has remained largely absent from the frontlines of the pandemic.
Some experts suggest that Putin withdrew from managing the coronavirus crisis to make the pandemic someone else’s problem, and to avoid reputational damage if the government’s response was ineffective. This explanation points to a much bigger issue: The attempts to avoid responsibility for the crisis signal that Putin understands that the Russian system is unable to sustain a test by COVID-19. Leading the emergency response from Moscow would require state-wide coordination across Russia’s regions and institutions, which would likely fail. From this perspective, any attempt to apply or further extend Putin’s prerogatives under the pretense of the novel coronavirus — similar to the dynamics in other authoritarian regimes — would mean giving orders that will not be implemented. Doing so would expose Putin’s weakness instead of contributing to his strength.
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