It’s less than two months to Election Day — whatever that means anymore. Early voting is gearing up. Reliable polls – Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports – show Republicans gaining. Even the Real Clear Politics average of major polls – that includes corporate media sponsored or cited surveys – show Democrats with a trifling 1.1% edge in the generic congressional ballot. That’s bad news for Democrats.
Corporate media polls are giving Nate Cohn, the New York Times poll-parser, the willies. Cohn is well aware of polls’ flaws. He just sounded a blue alert for Democrats. Via MEDIAite, September 12:
Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.
That’s a polite way of saying that big media polls are skewed. Cohn cites a failure to make “significant methodological changes,” which, translated, means, in part, a lot of polls oversample Democrats. Even with slanted polls, Democrats are struggling. Republicans are positioned to rack up a whole heap of wins come November. Democrat consultants are well aware of that bleak prospect…
