Texas National Security Review Given the many significant challenges America faces today — including high levels of debt, political discord, the rise of China, and the emergence of Asian economies as the drivers of global growth — what is the country’s plan for preserving its great power primacy? In this article, the authors examine the power that resides at the intersection of economics and national security, and propose how better to sustain the country’s economic might and leverage it in the service of American primacy.
The COVID-19 crisis and the resulting economic devastation have fueled already growing concerns about the state of the U.S.-led world order.1 For the past decade, public figures have raised concerns about the rise of China,2 the erosion of the American dream,3 the perceived failures of American leadership,4 and America’s relative loss of power.5 Now, suffering through a tragic international crisis, it is only natural that people might wonder what the future holds. Whether one agrees with these concerns or not, it is undeniable that many Americans are uneasy about their country’s future.6
The reality of American power is complicated. By most measures, the United States still enjoys preeminence: It maintains the world’s most powerful military and is the global leader in technological development and innovation.7 It possesses unrivaled structural power, due both to its reserve currency and to America’s role in having shaped the principles of the global order and of international institutions.8 Its network of like-minded allies and partners has endowed it with a unique ability to influence international affairs.9 And a vibrant, strong economy has sustained the growth of American power,10 helped along by America’s unique political values and culture, and its standing as a symbol of democracy for the world.11
At the same time, despite its many advantages, America currently faces serious headwinds, including high levels of debt, reduced economic mobility, political discord, and the emergence of a rising power.12 Even prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, America’s long-term spending commitments — including government and private debt, and pension and entitlement liabilities — totaled roughly 10 times the country’s GDP.13 These developments, combined with growing political polarization,14 have contributed to domestic unease, something the pandemic may worsen.15
The emergence of Asian economies as the drivers of global growth and the rise of China have also challenged American preeminence.16 The Chinese Communist Party has proclaimed its plans to achieve great power primacy in the coming decades and has set about contesting American economic, military, structural, and cultural power.17 These developments in China raise the question: What is America’s plan for preserving its great power primacy?
Some in America have gone through similar crises of confidence before,18 and each time the country has leveraged its unique strengths and capacities to recover and reach new heights.19 How then, with these current headwinds, can the United States repeat that cycle of renewal? What unique strengths and asymmetric advantages can today’s leaders leverage to achieve that goal? That question is the primary focus of this article. To answer it, we examine the power that resides at the intersection of economics and national security and in doing so argue that America’s economic power underwrites its national security. We believe more can be done to sustain the country’s economic might and to leverage it in service of American primacy.
As the 2017 National Security Strategy succinctly puts it, “Economic security is national security.”20 Driven by economic interdependence, the race to develop transformational technologies, and the ubiquity of cyberspace, national security and economics are converging. And that convergence is, according to Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, “turning the global networked economy into a space of strategic actions, counteractions, threats, targeting, counter-targeting and decoupling.”21 This has, in some respects, been true for decades, but it is accelerating.
Other countries, including Russia and China, have recognized this reality and are already integrating their economic and security strategies in order to compete with the United States.22 However, over the past two decades the United States has been slow to adapt. The Trump administration’s recognition that America is engaged in great power competition and that China is its primary strategic competitor is a critical step in the right direction, as was the administration’s acknowledgment that “promoting American prosperity makes America more secure and advances American influence in the world.”23 Yet, the United States still needs to improve and develop the structures and human capital that would best address those issues. And while the Trump administration’s forthcoming economic security strategy will likely outline valuable guidance, the United States has, for decades, lacked a clear agenda for coordinating its economic statecraft, domestic investments, and international partnerships to sustain American primacy.
