Election ‘Nostradamus’ Predicts Kamala Victory, but There’s a HUGE Problem

pjmedia.com

The leftists in the mainstream media are soiling themselves over historian Allan Lichtman’s updated election prediction model, the “Keys to the White House,” which has accurately predicted the results of every election since 1984.

On Thursday, he revealed that his model predicts that Kamala Harris will win the election.

“The Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said an op-ed video for The New York Times. “At least, that’s my prediction for this race.”

The unique system, which he developed in the early 1980s with the Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, analyzes the political landscape through the lens of 13 true-false statements focused on the incumbent president’s party.

If six or more of the statements are false, then the challenger — Trump — is predicted to win.

Here are the keys and Lichtman’s rating for each:

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE

Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE

Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE

Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE

Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE

Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

According to Lichtman, the final two keys to predicting the election outcome are uncertain due to the complexity of foreign policy. Despite the potential for these foreign policy keys to flip, Lichtman noted that even if both turned negative, there would still be only five negative keys in total — insufficient for Donald Trump to secure the presidency.

Earlier this year, Lichtman’s model predicted that Joe Biden would win reelection, too. We all know how that turned out. But even more damning for Lichtman is the fact that he predicted that the Trump-Biden debate would have no impact on the election…