Breitbart By Joshua Klein
Former President Donald Trump is poised to secure a significant electoral victory, potentially “sweeping battleground states,” according to Rasmussen’s head pollster, who sees the current race favoring Trump in the national popular vote, suggesting a larger “political realignment” is underway, and foreseeing an outcome that could echo — or even exceed — Ronald Reagan’s historic landslide win over Jimmy Carter in 1980.
In a striking forecast days before the 2024 presidential election, Rasmussen’s head pollster, Mark Mitchell, is suggesting that Donald Trump will secure a strong lead nationally and dominate in key battleground states, positioning him for a sweeping victory. Mitchell even foresees a potential flip of Virginia and New Hampshire, adding that other states, like Minnesota or New Mexico, might follow suit.
“What you’re hearing out there is that the polls are close, and I think that’s wrong,” he told Breitbart News in an exclusive interview on Friday, adding, “I think the polls on average show a strong Trump win, and my polls taken independently show that as well.”
On the likelihood of a battleground sweep and national popular vote win for Trump, he pointed to a “major political realignment.”
“I think the pollsters are having a hard time keeping up with that, us included,” he said. “Party [affiliation] means a lot less than whether you support Trump or Harris.”
Pointing to Trump’s tendency to outperform polls, he added, “I really don’t think he’s going to buck that trend. So I think he’s going to surprise people in the swing states by being to the right of the polls.”
Reflecting on public dissatisfaction with the current administration, he noted, “People don’t care who Kamala Harris is.”
“They care that she’s part of the Biden administration, and the Biden administration has been deeply unpopular,” he said, contrasting the vice president with Trump, who is familiar to Americans and has “already been through all of the convictions and cases and surprises.”
Mitchell expressed his belief that this year’s race has been stable, with a consistent national lead for Trump.
“The truth is, the race hasn’t changed,” he said, describing the dynamic as “locked in at a Trump plus two national popular vote.”
Despite some polling shifts in Harris’s favor, the Rasmussen pollster argues that Trump’s performance has improved from 2020.
“You can argue [that] maybe it’s a point to the right or a point to the left, but what you can’t argue is it’s six or seven points better than Trump was doing against Biden [compared to this time in 2020],” he said, underscoring a distinct advantage for Trump this cycle.
Polling Dynamics
Mitchell noted that Trump appears stronger in swing states than in past cycles.
“He’s doing way better than he ever has in previous cycles,” he said, pointing out that if Trump outperforms his previous national vote margins and the battlegrounds track similarly, “that means Trump sweeps the swing states… a big win.”
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