By Bild.De
The simulation on the website “Pandemieende.de” predicts the end of the current Corona situation in 7 days! But are we really that close?
If only individual aspects of a complex infection situation are taken into account: yes. “Pandemieende.de” calculates the end of the pandemic based on the current vaccination rate (measured on the 7-day average), up to the point at which herd immunity (by twice vaccinated) of 70 percent of the total population has been reached.
09.09.2021
another 7 days
The calculation is based on a population of 83 190 556 inhabitants and 14 615 052 twice vaccinated people in Germany. So far, 17.6 percent of the total population has been fully immunized – more than 80 percent are still missing. (As of May 31, data from the RKI) But: At “Pandemieende.de”, for example, the number of people who have recovered is NOT included, who, according to the current rules, are considered immune for six months and have the same rights as those who have been vaccinated. The calculation is based entirely on the vaccination rate. The crucial question: will the pandemic really end in 7 days? And: how certain is this prediction?
There are currently many indications that the Corona pandemic is slowly but surely coming to an end: more and more openings, vacation is possible again and the children are finally allowed to go back to school. June brings a lot of new freedoms. The incidences are falling nationwide. Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz (62, SPD) wants the so-called federal “emergency brake” to contain the pandemic at the end of June. Now the time has come to “gradually leave the pandemic behind us with the beginning of summer,” said the SPD candidate for chancellor on Monday in Berlin.
New Corona infections in Germany
Interactive map available on the original content link
With regard to the security of the calculation of “Pandemieende.de”, BILD had already contacted statistician Prof. Dr. Christian Hesse (60), head of the department for mathematical statistics at the University of Stuttgart, asked: “It is not possible to precisely predict the end of the pandemic,” Hesse told BILD at the time.
Because: “A pandemic forecast is more complicated than a weather forecast,” says Hesse.
“For herd immunity, we need a vaccination coverage of 70 percent of the population,” said Hesse to BILD. The computer from âPandemieende.deâ is based on this assumption, but at the same time leaves out factors such as a virus variant against which the vaccination is not effective.
The Berlin virologist Christian Drosten (48) has recently pleaded for cautious political action in view of the increasingly difficult interpretation of the pandemic development.
â¶ ïž In view of the increasing number of vaccinations, it is becoming increasingly difficult to make predictions, and politicians must exercise a certain sense of proportion and a certain degree of caution, said the head of the virologist at the CharitĂ© on Thursday at a hearing in the parliamentary advisory committee for the Covid-19 pandemic of the Bundestag.
According to Prof. Hesse, inaccurate data makes it even more difficult to predict the occurrence of the infection. On Mondays, the numbers of reported new infections are distorted by the weekend, for example.
â¶ ïž Since “Pandemieende.de” only takes the vaccinations into account, and in this case the seven-day average, the change in the end date of the pandemic on the site mainly shows how steadily the vaccination campaign is progressing.
In other words, if we vaccinate faster, the end of the pandemic is getting closer.
