The Last Refuge By Sundance
Unfortunately, as the Northwest coastal area of Florida continues to recover from Hurricane Helene, the National Hurricane Center is now warning of a tropical storm in the western gulf, heading East, that is likely to become Hurricane Milton.
There are many variables present within the models for the track of TS Milton as it develops and strengthens into a hurricane. This storm will be a little unique in modern forecast as it is traveling from west to east. Storms that travel this way create a very different set of variables in the cone of uncertainty.
Due to this path, the area north of the impact eyewall will see winds offshore. The area directly south of the impact eyewall will see winds directly onshore. Preparations are always critical within the cone area; however, preparations for a west to east storm are even more critical. A few miles and a little wobble can make all the difference in the storm surge.
Currently the cone of possibility extends from Ten Thousand Islands (South of Naples, FL) all the way to the Big Bend in the Peninsula of Florida. The center is Tampa Bay. The entire west coast of Florida is in the cone of uncertainty.
(NHC) – At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. (more)
The largest variables for Milton are size, intensity and impact zone. Unfortunately, these are significant variables; however, everyone should prepare for the worst scenario and then adjust with additional information as it is provided over the next two days. Do not get complacent with this one.
For those in the cone of uncertainty, remember, planning and proactive measures taken now can significantly reduce stress in the days ahead. Plan when to make the best decision on any evacuation (if needed) consider Tuesday the decision timeframe. As a general rule: take cover from wind – but evacuate away from water.
When the forecast narrows, the area directly SOUTH of the eyewall holds the greatest risk. However, stay calm. You are in control right now. You can make preparations right now. Currently, the centerline is Tampa Bay/St Pete.
The coastal area directly below Tampa/St Pete (Sarasota, Venice, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, Matlacha, Pine Island, Bokeelia, Sanibel Island, Captiva Island, Fort Myers, Fort Myers Beach, Bonita Springs, Naples, Marco Island, and Ten-Thousand-Islands) should be on high alert and paying very close attention.
Again, the difference between Milton being above or below your location will make a lot of difference…
READ FULL ARTICLE HERE…(theconservativetreehouse.com)
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