The program lead says future troops might be deployed with wearables like watches or chest straps that will know when they are getting sick and how long it will take them to get better.
U.S. service members are strong but theyâre still people, and people get sick sometimes. But when one gets sick at the last minute, that can have serious repercussions on their unitâs ability to execute critical missions.
The Defense Threat Reduction Agency, or DTRA, is trying to get ahead of this problem by developing a predictive algorithm that knows whether a service member is falling illâdue to anything from a cold to exposure to biological weaponsâup to 48 hours before they start to show any symptoms.
âThink of it as a check-engine for the human body,â Edward Argenta, science and technology manager for DTRAâs Joint Science and Technology Office, told Nextgov.
DTRA partnered with the Defense Innovation Unit to leverage the latterâs other transaction authorityâa special procurement method outside of the Federal Acquisition Regulationsâto develop the algorithm hand-in-hand with health IT company Royal Philips.
Using its own globally-collected data sets, Philips was able to develop a unique algorithm for the Defense Department. Using 165 distinct biomarkers across 41,000 cases, the Philips team was able to create the Rapid Analysis of Threat Exposure, or RATE, algorithm, which the company says can âpredict infection 48 hours before clinical suspicionâ with better than 85% accuracy.
âFor comparison, this performance lies in between blood-based breast and prostate cancer screening tests, and an enzyme immunoassay based first-tier Lyme disease test,â according to a company release.
âBy coupling large-scale data, with our experience in AI and remote patient monitoring with DTRAâs drive for innovation, we were able to develop a highly predictive early-warning algorithm based on non-invasively collected biomarkers,â Joe Frassica, chief medical officer and head of research for Philips North America, said in the release. âWhile the RATE data is derived from acute care settings, we believe that is adaptable to active duty personnel.â
While Philips will hold onto its dataâwith initial testing done, the government doesnât need that proprietary data, Argenta saidâthe military now holds the intellectual property rights to the algorithm that was created, allowing DTRA to further develop the program to work for all service members, from the back-office to the battlefield.
The solution procured through Philips is âthe first step in that journey,â Argenta said. âAt the end of the day we do want to have it as a whole-forces, all-warfighter solution. But we started in a clinical setting to evaluate the state of the science and see if we could actually get there.â
Testing the algorithm in a clinical setting was instrumental, Argenta explained, as developers were able to monitor patient vitals before symptoms began to show. As clinicians saw things like infections and sepsis develop in patients, they were able to compare data prior to symptoms showing and create an algorithm that would predict the onset of illness 48 hours before any outward signs.
âIn some of these clinical studies, youâre waiting for these overt signs and symptoms and then you can start monitoring,â he said. âSince weâre trying to be predictive, we need to be ahead of any event that we might think is a biological or chemical exposure or illness.â
From here, Argentaâs team plans to refine the model at military hospitals and clinics managed by the Veterans Affairs Department.
âBut in the future, weâre looking to bring it to the tactical edge and do this at the individual soldier level,â he said.
The algorithm developed by Philips currently uses two data models: one using lab results and the other only using vitals obtained through non-invasive means. Argenta said his team is focused on the latter.
âThe goal of my portfolio is to never prick or stick or take a sample out of you,â he said. âIf I can do everything remotely, digitally, from monitoring you with a wearable device that might sit on your bodyâlike a watch-based one or a chest strap oneâthatâs where the portfolio has been focused on.â