WorldNetDaily By Todd Carney
Real Clear Wire
Polls for Pennsylvania’s Senate race have tightened, yet the Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, continues to lead. Many prognosticators rate the Senate race as “leans Democrat” or “likely Democrat.” In theory, this makes sense. If polls are relatively accurate, Oz trails by 4.1 points, a tough margin to overcome at this point in the race. The problem: for the last six years, polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans, including in Pennsylvania elections. If Pennsylvania’s 2016 results are any indication, Republican Senate nominee Mehmet Oz has a strong chance.
Pennsylvania’s 2016 Senate race had similar dynamics to the current contest. It was competitive right to the end. As with the 2022 race, several election analysts rated the seat as “leans Democrat.” In the final 12 polls leading up to the election, the Republican incumbent, Pat Toomey, trailed the Democratic nominee, Katie McGinty, in 10. One poll even had Toomey down by 12 points. Yet, Toomey outperformed these polls by an average of 3.6 points and won reelection.
