Big League Politics By
A poll released last week by Zogby Analytics reveals that a plurality of Americans expect another civil war to occur at some point in the future. 46% of Americans indicated that the occurrence was likely, with 30% stating it was “somewhat likely” and 16% stating it was “very likely.” 42% of Americans predict that another civil war will not occur.
The Zogby poll queried 873 Americans across the country, weighted for political affiliation, regional residence, race and ethnicity. The poll didn’t ask about how a hypothetical civil war would unfold, leading the interpretation of the question up to those who answered it. Those who believe a civil war will happen may very well be talking about predictions hundreds of years in the future.
White Americans were the least likely to predict that another civil war would happen, with 43% of the demographic predicting as such. 49% of Black Americans and 53% of Hispanics predicted that it would. Young Americans are by far the most confident that a civil war is coming or inevitable, with 53% of those ages 18-29 saying it’ll happen. Only 31% of Americans 65+ are predicting a civil war.
Pluralities of Republicans and Democrats both predict that a civil war will happen, with independents disagreeing. 49% of Republicans and 45% of Democrats predict a civil war.
There is something to be said about the grandeur of a hypothetical Civil War blinding Americans to the unlikelihood of it. When the first Civil War broke out, spectators arrived to observe battlefields for entertainment, mostly unaware that the conflict would become the bloodiest in American history, even to this day. It’s impossible to know what this hypothetical conflict would look like, but sectarian civil conflicts in nations across the world have begun with charged rhetoric and heated language that seems to be little more than rattling of verbal sabers.
It’s up to President Joe Biden to unite the nation, and although he’s keen to talk about unity, he’s done little to indicate he intends to make sacrifices to deliver it.
