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The End of Corona?

By Eugyppius

 

Some speculation about the future.

 

Here’s how the future looked to me in October 2020:1

The optimistic scenario, is that the vaccine is rolled out in Spring 2021, and all of this goes away over the course of the next eighteen months. A major point against optimism, is that Covid has given a lot of terrible, petty, mediocre people a great deal of power, and they won’t be willing to give that up, ever. … It merely plays into their hands, that most of the vaccine candidates will likely provide limited immunity, might be dangerous for children, and possibly less effective for the elderly. …

A more pessimistic scenario, is that Covid devolves into an eternal nuisance after the pattern of climate change, but more intrusive. The vaccine comes, but mass testing and containment policies remain in place. Over the next several years, most countries fight their disease bureaucrats towards some minimally acceptable long-term compromise. … Full lockdowns, contrary to the interests of many industries, are phased out, but less costly interventions return every year in time for Christmas. … Should SARS-2 become especially rare, then other seasonal respiratory illnesses, like the flu, could be pressed into service. …

To nobody’s surprise, we did not get the vaccinator paradise. BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca have not eradicated SARS-2, and this has been very bad for the imprudent politicians and public health gurus who presided over the past two years of social and economic destruction. It has left them to find their own way out of the maze, with no help from The Science that they so love to follow. But, we did not quite get the unmitigated purgatory of undifferentiated, ongoing containment either. In the event, there was Omicron, a third way.

 

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