thehill.com The 2024 election will likely come down to just six states — and there is a big fault line right down the middle of them.
Numerous polls show that President Biden is more competitive in the battleground states in the Midwest and Rust Belt — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — than he is in the Sun Belt and Southern states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.
It’s not a bright picture for Biden anywhere, since he won the six battlegrounds in 2020 and former President Trump now has an advantage in all of them. In addition, the one state that Democrats held out hopes of flipping from the Trump column this November, North Carolina, looks like a heavy lift.
Still, the regional divide is notable.
In the polling averages maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump’s lead does not exceed 2 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. In fact, the former president’s lead is largely meaningless in Wisconsin, at just one-tenth of a percentage point.
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