Time’s up: Russia’s next move against Ukraine could be decisive

As the front lines in Ukraine settle into a temporary stalemate, attention turns to what the Kremlin may be planning next. With no major offensives currently underway, all signs point to a spring-summer campaign that could echo the dynamics of last year: Russia pressing forward across multiple axes, Ukraine holding the line with dwindling resources. But beneath the surface of this familiar pattern, critical shifts in strategy, manpower, and battlefield technology suggest that the coming months may bring far more than just a repeat of 2024.

On objectives

It’s worth remembering that for both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, holding or capturing territory isn’t the ultimate goal. In a war of attrition, the primary objective is to wear down the enemy – to inflict greater losses than you take. Ukraine, however, hasn’t always adhered to this logic. Over the past three years, there have been numerous instances where political imperatives overrode military ones. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), reluctant to withdraw from certain positions, ended up suffering costly local defeats. We saw this in Bakhmut and Avdeevka, in Ugledar and Velikaya Novoselka, at the Krynki and Kurakhovo bridgeheads, and most recently in Sudzha.

Predictability, this has worked to Russia’s advantage. The Russian military has honed the tactic of surrounding a city on multiple flanks, bringing supply lines under fire control, and slowly grinding down the garrison over weeks – or even months. The AFU, instead of retreating while they still can, typically dig in until the situation collapses, and then withdraw in disarray. The Ukrainian media usually dismisses the loss, claiming the city had no strategic value – a line that’s become a bitter meme in Ukraine.

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