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Trend Information
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Slightly more American voters say that the killing of a top Iranian general was the right action for the United States to take, with 45 percent saying it was the right action and 41 percent saying it was the wrong action, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. However, 45 percent say the killing of Qassem Soleimani has made Americans less safe, while 32 percent say it has made Americans more safe, and 18 percent say it has had no impact on the safety of Americans.
A majority of voters, 58 percent, do not think that the tensions between the United States and Iran will lead to war, while 29 percent think it will lead to war. There is a big partisan gap on this question as Democrats are evenly split 43 – 43 percent, Republicans do not think this will lead to war 80 – 10 percent, and independents say it will not lead to war 56 – 30 percent.
Nearly two thirds of voters, 64 percent, would oppose the United States going to war against Iran, while 26 percent would support going to war. There is again a big difference by party as Democrats say they oppose war against Iran 91 – 7 percent and independents oppose war against Iran 73 – 18 percent, while Republicans would support war against Iran 55 – 31 percent.
A similar number of voters, 65 percent, think President Trump should consult Congress if he plans to launch more military strikes in the Middle East. Democrats think he should consult with Congress 90 – 8 percent and independents think he should consult with Congress 71 – 24 percent, while Republicans think the president should not consult with Congress 57 – 34 percent.
President Trump gets a negative approval rating for his handling of the nation’s policy toward Iran, as 51 percent disapprove, while 43 percent approve. This nearly matches his overall approval rating, as 52 percent disapprove of the way he is handling his job as president, while 43 percent approve. President Trump’s job approval rating is unchanged from a month ago when 52 percent disapproved of the president’s job performance and 43 percent approved in a December 16 Quinnipiac University poll. This is tied for the president’s highest approval number since he took office. He also gets a new record high approval rating for his handling of the economy, which voters approve of 57 – 38 percent.
“In the wake of the recent major events surrounding Iran, President Trump’s job approval holds steady, continuing to match his highest approval ever. And with just under 300 days until Americans go to the polls, Trump receives his best ever approval of his handling of the economy,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Impeachment
A slight majority of voters, 51 – 46 percent, approve of the House of Representatives’ vote to impeach President Trump. Democrats approve 91 – 7 percent and independents approve 56 – 38 percent, while Republicans disapprove 92 – 7 percent. Voters are divided on whether the Senate should vote to remove President Trump from office, as 48 percent say the Senate should not vote to remove him and 46 percent say they should. Democrats think he should be removed 87 – 7 percent, independents are divided 48 – 44 percent, and Republicans think he should not be removed 94 – 5 percent.
Similar to the opinion on the House vote to impeach President Trump, a majority of voters, 52 – 45 percent, say they are troubled by President Trump’s actions involving Ukraine. Two thirds, 66 percent, would like to see John Bolton, the former National Security Advisor to President Trump, testify in the Senate impeachment trial, including 39 percent of Republicans, 71 percent of independents, and 91 percent of Democrats.
Slightly more voters disapprove of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s decision to hold the articles of impeachment until she knew more about how the Senate would conduct the trial, as 44 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove. Pelosi’s overall job approval rating is similar to President Trump’s approval rating with 41 percent approving of the way she is handling her job as Speaker and 51 percent disapproving. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also has a negative job approval rating as 36 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove.
“While voters are divided on Speaker Pelosi’s decision to hold the articles of impeachment, two thirds want to see Bolton tell the Senate what he knows in the upcoming trial,” added Malloy.
Democratic Primary
Former Vice President Joe Biden is down slightly but continues to lead the Democratic primary for president. Biden gets 25 percent of the vote among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders who gets 19 percent and Elizabeth Warren who receives 16 percent. Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg receives 8 percent, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg receives 6 percent, businessman Andrew Yang gets 5 percent, and Senator Amy Klobuchar gets 4 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent.
In a December 16, 2019 poll, Biden had 30 percent of the vote, Warren got 17 percent, Sanders received 16 percent, Buttigieg had 9 percent, and Bloomberg got 7 percent.
In today’s poll, nearly two thirds, 63 percent, of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they might change their mind about their vote, while 35 percent say their mind is made up.
Health care is the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in the Democratic primary for president among 27 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic. Climate change is named by 24 percent as most important, followed by the economy at 12 percent and foreign policy and education each at 9 percent. No other issue tops 5 percent. This is little changed from a November 26, 2019 poll, in which health care was named by 26 percent, climate change was named by 21 percent, 14 percent said the economy, and 9 percent said foreign policy.
When Democrats and independents who lean Democratic were asked which candidate would do the best job handling foreign policy, Biden won overwhelming with 46 percent, followed by Sanders at 12 percent and Warren with 10 percent. Biden also won on who would do the best job handling the economy but by a smaller margin than on foreign policy, as he was chosen by 25 percent, Warren got 18 percent and Sanders got 15 percent. However, Sanders wins on health care. Sanders is named by 28 percent as the candidate who would do the best job handling health care, followed by Biden at 19 percent and Warren at 18 percent. Sanders also wins on the issue of climate change with 22 percent saying he would do the best job, followed by Warren at 17 percent and Biden at 14 percent.
From January 8 – 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,562 self-identified registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 651 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
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1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
A lot 51% 60% 55% 42% 50% 51% 57% 52%
Some 28 27 27 30 27 29 28 26
Only a little 14 8 14 17 16 12 12 12
None at all 8 5 5 11 6 9 4 10
DK/NA - - 1 - 1 - - 1
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
A lot 37% 42% 54% 66% 54% 54% 54% 42% 41%
Some 30 31 29 21 26 28 27 24 28
Only a little 23 15 11 8 14 10 12 24 18
None at all 10 11 5 4 5 8 7 10 13
DK/NA - 1 - - - - - - -
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......................................
POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE......
LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No
A lot 53% 67% 51% 48% 51% 55% 59% 42% 59% 59%
Some 28 22 34 29 31 27 27 25 29 24
Only a little 13 9 7 16 12 13 9 22 9 9
None at all 5 2 8 5 5 6 5 10 3 8
DK/NA - - - 1 1 - - - - -
PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME.............
Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+
A lot 55% 49% 48% 41% 52% 68% 47% 60% 55%
Some 27 33 33 30 32 19 26 29 28
Only a little 14 10 15 18 13 8 16 9 14
None at all 5 7 4 9 3 5 10 2 1
DK/NA 1 - - 2 - - - - 1
TREND: How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
OnlyA None
A lot Some Little AtAll DK/NA
Jan 13, 2020 51 28 14 8 -
Dec 16, 2019 54 25 14 7 -
Dec 10, 2019 51 29 15 6 -
Nov 26, 2019 49 29 15 7 1
Oct 24, 2019 51 27 14 7 -
Oct 14, 2019 54 25 11 9 -
Oct 08, 2019 53 24 15 8 -
Sep 25, 2019 48 25 17 8 1
Aug 28, 2019 47 30 16 6 1
Jul 29, 2019 48 28 15 9 1
See additional trend information at top of page
2. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Michael Bennet, Tom Steyer, Deval Patrick, and Michael Bloomberg, for whom would you vote?
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......................................
POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE......
LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No
Biden 25% 15% 26% 29% 24% 26% 22% 33% 22% 23%
Sanders 19 24 26 14 24 15 15 24 14 16
Warren 16 38 16 7 12 18 19 8 24 12
Booker 1 - 3 1 - 2 1 3 2 -
Klobuchar 4 2 1 4 2 4 6 - 7 4
Gabbard 1 - 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2
Delaney - - - - - - - - - -
Buttigieg 8 5 7 10 9 8 11 2 9 15
Yang 5 8 3 5 6 5 5 5 3 9
Bennet 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 2
Steyer 1 - 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2
Patrick 1 - - 1 1 - - 3 - -
Bloomberg 6 2 3 9 5 7 5 8 5 5
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - 1 - 1 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 1 -
DK/NA 11 6 11 12 10 11 9 12 8 10
PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME.............
Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+
Biden 29% 12% 12% 25% 29% 37% 23% 28% 25%
Sanders 18 20 39 19 9 7 18 23 20
Warren 17 11 18 20 14 11 14 19 14
Booker 1 1 2 2 1 - 3 1 1
Klobuchar 3 5 1 2 5 6 4 2 4
Gabbard 1 3 - 3 1 - - 3 2
Delaney - 1 - - 1 - - - -
Buttigieg 7 12 10 4 10 7 5 8 10
Yang 5 7 12 7 2 - 5 2 9
Bennet 1 1 - 3 - 1 1 - 1
Steyer 1 2 - - 2 2 2 2 -
Patrick 1 - - 2 1 - 2 - -
Bloomberg 6 8 4 5 8 9 8 1 7
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 1 - - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 2 1 2 - 1
DK/NA 10 13 3 8 14 18 14 10 5
ATTN TO PRES CAMPAIGN Q1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q3....
Little/ Health Clim. For.
A lot Some None Econ care change policy
Biden 29% 24% 16% 28% 26% 20% 34%
Sanders 18 26 12 18 21 21 14
Warren 18 14 12 14 13 28 13
Booker 1 1 4 1 1 - 1
Klobuchar 5 2 1 2 3 5 2
Gabbard 2 - 1 4 - - 1
Delaney - - - - - - 2
Buttigieg 10 6 7 1 10 10 11
Yang 4 6 8 12 1 4 4
Bennet - 1 2 3 - 1 -
Steyer 1 1 2 1 1 - -
Patrick - - 3 - - - -
Bloomberg 4 7 11 4 9 4 6
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 3 - 1 - 3
DK/NA 7 12 17 12 13 7 10
TREND: (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Michael Bennet, Tom Steyer, Deval Patrick, and Michael Bloomberg, for whom would you vote? (Trend information is available upon request back through Mar 2019)