BY SEEKING ALPHA
Summary
- High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy.
- The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators.
- There was deterioration across all three timeframes this week.
- For the first time, that included significant risk of a recession beginning in Q2 2023.
Purpose
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.” In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.
A Note on Methodology
Data is presented in a “just the facts, ma’am” format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.
