Safe aurora tours: Thinking of a visit to Norway? Marianne’s Heaven on Earth Aurora Tours has a 7-seater minivan for families who don’t require social distancing. See the Northern Lights or take a scenic day tour. Book here
DARK FILAMENT ERUPTION ON THE SUN: A dark filament of magnetism flung itself away from the sun yesterday, Feb 20th. The eruption split the sun’s atmosphere, creating a broad “canyon of fire” and hurling a CME into space. NOAA analysts are modeling the CME to determine if it will hit Earth. Our first guess: Earth will receive a glancing blow on or about Feb. 23rd. Stay tuned. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
PINK AURORAS OVER ICELAND: “I’ve never seen the sky so pink before,” says Jónína Óskarsdóttir, who witnessed an outbreak of nitrogeneous auroras over Fáskrúðsfjörður, Iceland:
“It was great, though it didn’t last for long time because of the cloud cover,” says Óskarsdóttir.
Pink auroras are a sign of nitrogen. Most auroras are green–the color of oxygen atoms being struck by energetic particles 100 km to 300 km above Earth’s surface. Pink appears when energetic particles from space descend lower than usual, striking nitrogen molecules at the 100 km level and below.
The energetic particles, in this case, came from a hole in the sun’s atmosphere spewing solar wind faster than 600 km/s. Cracks in Earth’s magnetic field allowed the wind in, deep enough for pink. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
THIS IS *REAL* MONEY FROM SPACE: The US Mint has just released a reverse-proof dollar coin honoring the Hubble Space Telescope. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus took it one step further, flying a whole roll of Hubble coins to the edge of space. Here they are floating 35.3 km (115,814 ft) above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:
You can have one for $39.95. The students are selling Hubble coins to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each coin comes with a greeting card showing the money in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere. Best of all, this is real money! You can actually spend it. All sales support hands-on STEM research.
| All Sky Fireball Network |
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Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth’s atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Feb. 21, 2021, the network reported 9 fireballs.
(9 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point–Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
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| Near Earth Asteroids |
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Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
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|
| Asteroid |
Date(UT)
|
Miss Distance
|
Velocity (km/s)
|
Diameter (m)
|
| 2021 BS3 |
2021-Feb-16
|
17.3 LD
|
10.4
|
64
|
| 2021 CZ7 |
2021-Feb-16
|
3.2 LD
|
9.2
|
8
|
| 2021 DF |
2021-Feb-16
|
8.1 LD
|
10
|
20
|
| 2021 BM |
2021-Feb-17
|
6 LD
|
2.9
|
31
|
| 2021 CH5 |
2021-Feb-17
|
12.2 LD
|
9
|
16
|
| 2021 CD5 |
2021-Feb-18
|
12.1 LD
|
14.9
|
27
|
| 2020 CX1 |
2021-Feb-18
|
4.9 LD
|
8.3
|
55
|
| 2021 DP |
2021-Feb-18
|
2.9 LD
|
8.1
|
17
|
| 2021 DN1 |
2021-Feb-18
|
0.9 LD
|
7.5
|
9
|
| 2021 CM1 |
2021-Feb-18
|
18.2 LD
|
6.4
|
29
|
| 2021 CU8 |
2021-Feb-18
|
3.1 LD
|
12.7
|
8
|
| 2021 DG |
2021-Feb-18
|
0.4 LD
|
13.1
|
3
|
| 2021 DC1 |
2021-Feb-19
|
8.6 LD
|
8.2
|
21
|
| 2021 CE8 |
2021-Feb-19
|
7.5 LD
|
12.2
|
9
|
| 2021 CP7 |
2021-Feb-19
|
6.3 LD
|
10.4
|
10
|
| 2021 CB8 |
2021-Feb-19
|
8.3 LD
|
11.4
|
11
|
| 2021 CO4 |
2021-Feb-19
|
15.8 LD
|
19.1
|
60
|
| 2021 CP9 |
2021-Feb-19
|
9.8 LD
|
9
|
14
|
| 2021 CW2 |
2021-Feb-19
|
12.3 LD
|
3.8
|
10
|
| 2021 DO |
2021-Feb-20
|
6.5 LD
|
8.6
|
16
|
| 2021 CU3 |
2021-Feb-20
|
16.1 LD
|
25.9
|
105
|
| 2021 CC2 |
2021-Feb-20
|
16.5 LD
|
4.4
|
94
|
| 2021 CR3 |
2021-Feb-20
|
19 LD
|
23
|
96
|
| 2021 DB1 |
2021-Feb-20
|
7.1 LD
|
16.5
|
20
|
| 2021 DK1 |
2021-Feb-21
|
15.8 LD
|
16.6
|
64
|
| 2021 DD1 |
2021-Feb-21
|
4.3 LD
|
9.5
|
11
|
| 2020 BV9 |
2021-Feb-22
|
14.7 LD
|
7.6
|
25
|
| 2020 XU6 |
2021-Feb-22
|
10.7 LD
|
8.4
|
222
|
| 2021 CC5 |
2021-Feb-22
|
18.1 LD
|
10.4
|
42
|
| 2021 DX1 |
2021-Feb-23
|
10.7 LD
|
6.6
|
95
|
| 2015 EQ |
2021-Feb-23
|
18 LD
|
10.5
|
21
|
| 2021 CH8 |
2021-Feb-23
|
13 LD
|
9.7
|
38
|
| 2021 DP1 |
2021-Feb-24
|
4.7 LD
|
9.5
|
25
|
| 2021 DE |
2021-Feb-28
|
4.2 LD
|
25.9
|
50
|
| 2021 DM |
2021-Feb-28
|
12.8 LD
|
10.3
|
21
|
| 2011 DW |
2021-Mar-01
|
13.9 LD
|
13.6
|
89
|
| 2011 EH17 |
2021-Mar-02
|
9.6 LD
|
16.8
|
43
|
| 1999 RM45 |
2021-Mar-02
|
7.7 LD
|
20
|
468
|
| 2016 DV1 |
2021-Mar-03
|
2.1 LD
|
18.3
|
39
|
| 2020 SP |
2021-Mar-03
|
18.4 LD
|
3.9
|
14
|
| 2021 DE1 |
2021-Mar-03
|
4.4 LD
|
3
|
11
|
| 2021 DW1 |
2021-Mar-04
|
1.5 LD
|
5.4
|
32
|
| 2021 CN3 |
2021-Mar-05
|
11.2 LD
|
3.8
|
18
|
| 2021 CF8 |
2021-Mar-05
|
11.5 LD
|
11.8
|
51
|
| 2021 DL |
2021-Mar-08
|
11.9 LD
|
5.8
|
32
|
| 535844 |
2021-Mar-10
|
14.2 LD
|
7.3
|
162
|
| 2021 CF6 |
2021-Mar-10
|
4.2 LD
|
8.4
|
62
|
| 2020 FM |
2021-Mar-10
|
18.2 LD
|
13.3
|
57
|
| 2011 YW10 |
2021-Mar-12
|
19.8 LD
|
13.2
|
45
|
| 2021 CX8 |
2021-Mar-15
|
18.2 LD
|
6.6
|
50
|
| 2021 DT |
2021-Mar-16
|
18.3 LD
|
7.3
|
33
|
| 231937 |
2021-Mar-21
|
5.3 LD
|
34.4
|
1024
|
| 2021 CX5 |
2021-Mar-27
|
7.7 LD
|
5.6
|
49
|
| 2020 GE |
2021-Mar-27
|
12.7 LD
|
1.5
|
8
|
| 2019 GM1 |
2021-Mar-31
|
15.1 LD
|
3.9
|
14
|
| 2015 MB54 |
2021-Apr-06
|
13.6 LD
|
3.7
|
59
|
| 2020 GE1 |
2021-Apr-07
|
12.2 LD
|
4.2
|
14
|
| 2014 FO38 |
2021-Apr-07
|
16.8 LD
|
8.3
|
20
|
| 2020 UY1 |
2021-Apr-15
|
16 LD
|
8.7
|
22
|
| 2017 HG4 |
2021-Apr-16
|
7.6 LD
|
4.1
|
10
|
| 2020 HE5 |
2021-Apr-17
|
8.5 LD
|
4.3
|
10
|
| 2019 HQ |
2021-Apr-20
|
14.8 LD
|
8.8
|
20
|
|
Notes: LD means “Lunar Distance.” 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
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| Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
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SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It’s called E-RAD–short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.
E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.
The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.
To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly “down to Earth” form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:
The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth’s atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:
In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth’s magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.
|
| Essential web links |
|
 |
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center |
|
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
|
|
Atmospheric Optics |
|
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
|
|
Solar Dynamics Observatory |
|
| Researchers call it a “Hubble for the sun.” SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
|
|
STEREO |
|
| 3D views of the sun from NASA’s Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
|
|
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory |
|
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
|
Daily Sunspot Summaries |
|
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
|
|
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts |
|
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
|
Aurora 30 min forecast |
|
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
|
Heliophysics |
|
| the underlying science of space weather |
|
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NASA Near Earth Asteroid Home Page |
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