Berlin is recalibrating its policy towards Beijing as economic gravity overrides ideological distance

By Ladislav Zemánek, non-resident research fellow at China-CEE Institute and expert of the Valdai Discussion Club
When Chancellor Friedrich Merz landed in Beijing late last month for his first official visit to China, the symbolism was unmistakable. He joined a growing procession of Western leaders – following French President Emmanuel Macron at the end of 2025 and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the beginning of 2026 – seeking face time in the Chinese capital. Even Donald Trump is expected in Beijing at the turn of March and April.
This choreography reflects a broader geopolitical reality: Amid fears of a two-front trade war with the world’s two superpowers, Western Europe’s leading economies are reassessing the logic of confrontation and economic disentanglement.
Merz’s visit unfolded against three converging pressures. Germany faces domestic economic stagnation, turbulent transatlantic relations, and a deepening need to recalibrate its relationship with China. Berlin’s earlier flirtation with de-risking and decoupling was born of geopolitical anxiety. But as the costs accumulate – industrial contraction, shrinking export markets, and competitive erosion – Germany’s political establishment appears to have reached a sober conclusion: Strategic decoupling from China is not a viable long-term policy for the EU’s largest economy.
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