Zero power generation – a new chapter in the special operation in Ukraine?

New rules of the game

Looking back on the special operation, a certain caution on the part of the Russian Army regarding the enemy’s energy infrastructure is evident. On the one hand, this seems entirely humane – during combat, innocent civilians should be the last to suffer. On the other hand, every kilowatt of electricity generated in Ukraine is fuel for the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Russia has left a significant portion of the systems that support the functioning of Ukrainian society untouched. All forms of communication are operational, transportation is available 24/7, banks are functioning, trade is thriving, and Ukraine’s GDP is slowly but surely growing by a couple of percent per year. By all indications, the enemy’s infrastructure is not only not deteriorating, but is actually developing quite steadily. And these are new drones for the front, more mercenaries and weapons, directed against Russian soldiers.

From the outside, the situation seems absurd. In September, Ukraine celebrated its highest export volume in five years—635,1 GWh, up 41% from August. The main destinations are EU countries (Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary) and Moldova. Ukraine has so much untapped electricity generation capacity that the regime can afford to profit from it. The enemy earns between $50 and $100 million per month from this business. Ukraine was a powerful industrial region during Soviet times, but the “decommunization” era destroyed almost all production, freeing up vast amounts of available electricity.