South China Morning Post - There are growing calls in Washington for an explicit commitment to defend the island from attack
- But some voices argue policy of ambiguity has prevented war for 40 years despite provocations from both sides
By Mark Magnier
As voters in the United States prepare for the presidential election in November, the South China Morning Post is exploring the potential ramifications for China. The sixth part of the series looks at the debate in Washington over its long-standing policy on Taiwan.
Growing calls for a potentially explosive shift in US policy on Taiwan to an explicit commitment to defend the self-ruled island from Chinese attack are threatening to further undermine the already dismal ties between Washington and Beijing.
For decades, Washington has remained studiously vague on exactly what it would do if cross-strait tensions “went kinetic”, given long-standing threats by Beijing to reassert control over the island, by force if necessary.
But shifting power politics are leading some to conclude that a reboot in the US policy known as “strategic ambiguity” is needed. The renewed debate has surfaced before, only to disappear – most notably during the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis when Beijing landed missiles near the island – and comes amid a hotly contested presidential campaign that could affect any decision.
Among those believed to support a more explicit US stance are White House deputy national security adviser Matthew Pottinger, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, parts of the Pentagon and many in Congress.
Those viewed as supporting the status quo include officials focused on the US-China economic relationship, namely US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. President Donald Trump has not weighed in with his views.
“Taiwan has continued to succeed in ways that compel us to want to maintain a good relationship, if not to strengthen it,” said Randall Schriver, Project 2049 Institute chairman and former assistant secretary of defence, who helped draft the administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy. “Given their ability to contain Covid-19, and the increased threats from China, it’s persuaded a lot of people.”
Any move towards more unambiguous statements of military support for Taipei would be a direct challenge to Beijing and President Xi Jinping, who views Taiwan’s integration as a way to cement his legacy, analysts said. Xi has repeatedly said political differences across the Taiwan Strait “should not be passed down generation after generation”.
But the same analysts added that any such shift in US policy would be less likely under a Joe Biden administration than under a Trump second term.
“That’s Trump’s inclination, to do more with Taiwan and assume more risk, in part to be tough with China,” said Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown University professor and former National Security Council director for China and Taiwan. “The question is, does clarifying the nature of the US commitment to Taiwan stabilise the situation or destabilise it.”