Could Covid-19 disappear next month?

The day-to-day new infections numbers on the chart vary so wildly that the CDC added the red line to show us the moving seven-day average of new cases, and it is that trendline that shows the future course of the disease. It peaked at just more than 240,000 new cases per day in the second week of January and in the weeks since it has dropped by more than half. If this rate continues we will be able to stop wearing masks, keeping our distance from others, and doing the other things we’ve been told would halt the spread of the virus. Now, that’s a tantalizing thought! That is an “if” statement. We will have to wait and see what actually happens.

Still, that trendline is credible given the pattern of disease outbreaks that have been documented in history where they spread before finally dropping off sharply. It has happened often enough that history gives us good reason to hope we are seeing COVID-19 following the same path to oblivion.

Why are the COVID-19 infection rates declining so sharply?

The leading claim of the doomsayers is that the mitigation measures they’ve imposed on us are proving effective. However, that claim fails an obvious test of logic. If wearing masks, social distancing, sanitizing and all the other things they’ve told us to do failed to stop or even significantly reduced the spread of the virus over the prior eleven months, why should we believe they have suddenly become effective? While we cannot dismiss those measures as completely ineffective their greatest benefits have been to politicians and the makers of face masks and hand sanitizer.

The next cause factor some people are starting to credit is the mass immunization effort. Make no mistake, vaccinations are a good thing because they trigger your body’s immune system to protect you against specific diseases, and more than 50 million Americans getting the shot is a good start. The problem with the claim is it’s rushing ahead of reality. We’re just passing 15% of the population getting the shots; that is far from being enough to be driving such a sharp drop in new infections.

The downturn began when less than 10 million people had gotten their first shot. Additionally, it takes 3-8 weeks for a person to develop full immunity. The irony of the downturn in infections is that in March we could find ourselves billions of dollars worth of vaccines becoming more widely available just when a majority of the pubic is realizing COVID-19 is no longer a threat. Millions who before would have willingly gotten the shot will be questioning why they should be protected against a threat that has gone away.

The more likely cause of the drop in infection rates is the development of herd immunity. That is what happens when enough people in a population have been exposed to the virus and become immune, thus the virus is no longer able to find enough non-resistant hosts in which to multiply and no longer able spread.

The CDCs infection maps show that the virus has spread everywhere. So, we should not be surprised by the arrival of herd immunity. It is how diseases have been defeated throughout history. Outbreaks follow clear patterns where they spread before declining sharply. For example, the 1917-18 Spanish Flu epidemic ended with a sharp decline matching what we are seeing with COVID-19.

Three arguments have been used against the idea of herd immunity: Denial that it happens at all. That it can only be realized if more than 70% of the population is immunized. And that the results of the nationwide COVID-19 testing program are an accurate measurement of the development of immunity.

Herd immunity is a well-documented medical fact and mass immunization can create it. But, the promoters of immunization claim that result will not be seen before this coming summer, at the earliest. Both arguments are being refuted by reality.

Claims based on the testing program are exercises in logical and statistical nonsense that illustrate the old truism saying, “Figures don’t lie but liars use figures.” The number of tests for the virus is approaching the total population of the country and 9.16% of the tests were positive. However, the tests only tell you if a person is infected, NOT if they have developed immunity. Also, the negative results are skewed because of the large number of health care workers, EMS personnel and other “front line” people who have been tested multiple times.

Politicians and their acolytes in the mainstream media have been telling us for almost a year that we must “follow the science” and obey their edicts without question while refusing to show us “the science” they claim justifies lockdowns, wearing masks and social distancing. Will the dawning reality that COVID-19 is on a path to history force them to change their tunes? That’s not in their DNA so don’t bet on it. They are already trying to create new fears over a pair of virus variants that supposedly are able to spread much more quickly when the number of cases are limited, and both natural and vaccine-generated immunity are effective at preventing new infections. In other words, reality is proving the naysayers are liars.

Will COVID-19 disappear next month? We’ll have to wait and see. Still, the prospect of returning to normal without it is wonderfully delicious.

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