Children's Health Defense By
There was an increase in measles cases reported between 2021 and 2022, according to a Nov. 17 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The report attributed the increase to falling vaccination rates.
U.S. media described the report results as “staggering,” but separate, concurrent CDC data, posted Nov. 2, show only a slight increase in measles cases in the U.S.
According to the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), global measles cases increased 18% and estimated deaths rose 43% between 2021 and 2022. The number of countries experiencing “large or disruptive” outbreaks also rose between 2021 and 2022, from 22 to 37.
The global decrease in vaccination rates — cited by the CDC as the cause of the increase in measles cases — was small, although the decrease did break a pattern going back more than 20 years.
The data show global measles vaccination rates had been rising steadily, from 72% in 2000 to 86% in 2019. They fell 5 percentage points in 2021, to 81%, but then inched upward again in 2022 to 83%.
The CDC report did not explain how the relatively small changes in vaccine rates could bring about such dramatic increases in measles cases and deaths globally. The authors of the report did not respond to The Defender’s request to explain this.
Estimates cited in report ‘subject to some uncertainty’
The CDC’s percentage increase in global measles cases is based on data provided by 144 reporting countries. However, the agency’s estimate of a 43% increase in fatalities is just that — an estimate, based on previously calculated case fatality rates (CFRs) for specific countries, not death reports.
CFR, which typically measures disease severity, is the percentage of people among all diagnosed individuals who die from a disease during a specified time interval: If 100 people get measles during 2023 and 5 die, the CFR is 5/100 or 5% for that period…
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