Spain’s Push To Extend Lockdown Sparks Political Standoff As Global Coronavirus Deaths Decline For 5th Day: Live Updates

Update (1700ET): Germany is apparently plowing forward with its plans to reopen the economy despite a recent uptick in “R” – the rate of spread for SARS-CoV-2 – that helped rattle the market’s confidence in the rebound narrative that had been taking shape before the most famous investor reminded the market that many industries are facing serious long-term obstacles, and that the long slog back to growth has only just begun.

German state ministers have reportedly agreed with Chancellor Merkel to begin the next step in Germany’s phased reopening: Allowing the rest of the student population to return to class, albeit on a staggered schedule that, in its seemingly absurd complexity, can perhaps best be described as ‘Kafkaesque’.

• GERMAN STATES TO REOPEN SCHOOLS FOR ALL GRADES WITH CHILDREN ONLY ALLOWED TO GO TO CLASS IN ROTATING SHIFTS, NOT ON DAILY BASIS GERMAN STATES TO ALLOW BUNDESLIGA SOCCER LEAGUE TO RESUME MATCHES FROM MAY 15 UNDER STRICT CONDITIONS WITHOUT FANS IN STADIUMS -SOURCES

Oh, and while the mainstream media continues to run with the NYT’s meaningless 3k figure, Johns Hopkins University has independently confirmed that the numbers obtained by the paper are no longer relevant.

White House statement on @nytimes reporting a CDC doc suggests US could see 3k deaths a day… pic.twitter.com/IpzwkJ7Gi7

— Paula Reid (@PaulaReidCBS) May 4, 2020

Update (1550ET): Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino just reported that the NFL is planning to announce its schedule for the 2020-2021 season on Thursday.

SCOOP-@NFL schedule likely to be announced Thursday night; fan attendance will likely be left up to states meaning Texas could have some fans at stadium more now @FoxBusiness @LizClaman

— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) May 4, 2020

It’s Charlie – so take it with a grain of salt. But the prospect of an NFL season – however limited – should warm the hearts of all those sports fanatics about to start placing bets on South Korean baseball.

*     *     *

Update (1530ET): Monday’s coronavirus data out of the UK was pretty solid.

As of 9am 4 May, there have been 1,291,591 tests, with 85,186 tests on 3 May.

945,299 people have been tested of which 190,584 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 3 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus, across all settings, 28,734 have sadly died. pic.twitter.com/5KhmQy9k9W

— Department of Health and Social Care (@DHSCgovuk) May 4, 2020

Here are the highlights.

Good news from the UK:

– Number of new cases down
– Number of new deaths down
– Number of new people tested up

— Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) May 4, 2020

Update (1530ET): Apparently, the NYT’s fearmongering efforts (which we mentioned below and also wrote about here) haven’t dissuaded the progressive governor of California, who will allow some retail businesses to begin a “limited” reopening as soon as Thursday.

• CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR SAYS SOME RETAIL BUSINESSES MAY BEGIN LIMITED REOPENING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY

That’s quite the 180 from last week, when he refused to even give an expected date for when limited reopenings might begin. The difference? Some counties are starting to consider flouting state-wide rules and moving ahead on their own. And then there’s the federal bailout money.

*     *     *

Update (1520ET): California Gov. Gavin Newsom has started his daily press briefing by announcing a new testing record for his state of 30,000 tests run in a single day.

TUNE IN NOW. https://t.co/NyM7l2DOXS

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) May 4, 2020

*     *     *

Update (1205ET): As expected, Andrew Cuomo said during his press briefing on Monday that areas of the state with few cases of the virus and even fewer deaths should start preparing “now” for what’s expected to be a May 15 reopening.

• CUOMO: URGES N.Y. REGIONS TO START PREPARING NOW FOR MAY 15
• CUOMO: STARTING MAY 15 REGIONS CAN DO OWN REOPENING ANALYSIS

This, as the NYT publishes “internal projections” from the CDC calling for average daily US deaths to accelerate to 3,000 a day by June 1. However, most of the hardest hit states are seeing cases and deaths decline, while some states are seeing a slight acceleration. Overall US mortality has plateaued. According to the CDC’s own coronavirus weekly summary, “nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) declined again this week. They have been below the national baseline for two weeks but remain elevated in the northeastern and northwestern part of the country. Levels of laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 activity remained similar or decreased compared to last week.”

The NYT reported that the White House continues to expect up to 3,000 deaths a day in June while Trump continues to ‘press’ for states to reopen.

The report also claimed the projections “confirm” public health experts “primary fear” that a premature reopening will instigate a rebound putting us right back where we were in March.

As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse.

“There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow,” the C.D.C. warned.

The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways as the health care system grew overloaded.

But even states that have pressed ahead with reopening aren’t seeing anywhere near the activity they saw as recently as mid-March, just as the stay-at-home orders and lockdowns were beginning.

Trump smartly stopped egging on protesters and pushing states to reopen before federal guidelines say it’s acceptable. But at this point, the notion that these projections represent anything more than a “worst case” scenario for the CDC seems far-fetched.

*     *     *

Update (1140ET): Andrew Cuomo is beginning is daily press briefing by announcing a slight uptick in the daily death toll (off its lowest level in more than a month) and a continued drop in hospitalizations.

Holding a briefing with updates on #Coronavirus. Watch Live: https://t.co/ynd2dc2lnB

— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) May 4, 2020

The pace of deaths in New York State climbed 1.2% yesterday (according to the data released Monday); that’s compared with an average jump of 1.3% last week.

*     *     *

Update (1055ET): French President Emmanuel Macron just announced that the results of “Project Discovery”, a massive pan-European trial to try to find a coronavirus cure, will be released in a couple of weeks. He also said he believes the borders of the Schengen area will be shut until September.

*     *     *

Update (1030ET): As WSJ reports, Florida joined the ranks of US states easing restrictions related to the coronavirus outbreak, while Italy allowed factories to reopen along with more stores while allowing Italians to visit relatives.

The first phase of Florida’s reopening plan calls for restaurants and shops in most parts of the state – with the notable exception of a few counties in South Florida – to operate at 25% of their indoor capacity starting Monday. Schools, bars, gyms and salons will remain closed.

Even in parts of the US where restrictions likely won’t start to be lifted for a couple more weeks or longer, local officials are starting to draw up plans to move even faster than their governors might ideally like. As WSJ points out, two California counties, Sutter and Yuba, have said some businesses including salons, spas and tattoo parlors can open Monday under “modified” guidelines.

As we mentioned earlier, most Italians were allowed to see family members for the first time in almost two months on Monday. They were also allowed to restart exercising in parks, while also being permitted to enter restaurants to pick up takeout (like they say, it’s the little things that count).

After allowing children to play outside for the first time last week, Spain permitted hairdressers, beauty salons and small shops to open by appointment only on Monday.

Greece, Belgium, India, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand also lifted some restrictions, allowing certain businesses and government offices to reopen after weeks of closure. German students in their final year of school were allowed to return to their classrooms.

France, which is being extremely cautious and slow with lifting its lockdown, is stretching that out even further. The country’s Labor Minister said people who can should work from home until at least mid-summer.