The US has raised the travel alert for Ukraine to Level 4 “Do Not Travel” following escalations and troop movements within Russia.
Over he past few months, Russia has increased the number of troops along the border, and even within the Donbass region. The United States has also increased the military aid given to Ukraine over the past few months, and as tensions seem to have reached 2015 levels (during the height of the initial war), the moment that we have been waiting for might be arriving very soon.
Analyst Comment:
Will Russia launch a full scale invasion? If so, when? How far will Russia go, and what will the United States do in response? Is this a genuine threat, or is this just Russia trying to bully Ukraine into not joining NATO?
Right now, from the most senior policy-making analysts, down to the most junior analysts, the answers to these questions are up in the air. However, one aspect remains absolutely certain…the United States will not hesitate to leave Americans behind in the event that a full scale invasion begins.
The Afghanistan fiasco, and the Americans that were (and still are) left behind has gone down in history as evidence of that fact. Granted, as a result of that utter disaster, the US State Department and the DoD have taken some half-hearted measures to ensure that they don’t have to deal with another PR disaster like that, but always remember that the only person that was fired as a result of the Afghanistan disaster…was the one person publicly demanding accountability.
For us here (the S2 Underground/a freelance intelligence agency), the Afghanistan disaster still rings close to home, so we are overly cautious regarding any situation that might have potential to repeat elements of that tragedy. So when it comes to Ukraine, if you are an American Citizen who is waiting for a sign to leave…this is it.
By increasing the travel threat warning level to the highest level, the DoS is trying to avoid a repeat of Afghanistan, so it is likely that this warning is a premature nudge to American Citizens in Ukraine. However, not enough lessons have been learned from previous failed evacuation efforts, and the US remains woefully
under-prepared to evacuate it’s citizens from Ukraine. Especially in a denied environment where the adversary has superior airpower, significant surface-to-air targeting capabilities, and a willingness to target civilians and infrastructure to meet their military objectives…
