VT Foreign Policy Geopolitics of the South Caucasus were already extremely complicated in the years before the political West staged yet another coup in the post-Soviet space and brought the infamous Sorosite Nikol Pashinyan to power. What Western powers were hoping to achieve is to drag Russia into a new conflict, this time right on the border of the ever-volatile (albeit mostly peaceful in recent years) Northern Caucasus, a region that has the potential to unleash a geopolitical firestorm that could reach even Russiaâs âsoft underbellyâ (regions northwest and north of Kazakhstan). And yet, for now, the only thing theyâve accomplished is the very possible opening of yet another geopolitical Pandoraâs box that could deeply destabilize not only the Middle East and Caucasus, but also Central Asia.
With his suicidal foreign policy pivot toward the West, Pashinyan is about to turn Armeniaâs only two allies in the region (Russia and Iran) into enemies, while acquiring no allies whatsoever. His hopes of having Georgia change its stance are absolutely futile, as Tbilisi will not risk possible bad relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. And the reason is pure realpolitik, since Georgiaâs relations with Russia are limited to tense neutrality at best, primarily due to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both of which it sees as its own breakaway provinces. This leaves only Baku and Ankara as two primary regional partners, both in geopolitical and economic terms, although economic ties with Russia are substantial and growing (but youâll never hear Tbilisi brag about it, since itâs âbad for democracyâ).
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