By James Gorrie
Will China trigger an Asia–Pacific war over Taiwan—or is there another, more strategic plan afoot?
Commentary
It’s no secret that Beijing is preparing for war.
One of the main reasons is China’s cratering economy. The recent collapse of the Evergrande real estate development firm is only the latest in a series of dire symptoms that are fueling rising domestic discontent. The $8 trillion debt crisis in the shadow economy—more than half of its gross domestic product (GDP)—is also looming large in China’s ability to keep its financial system afloat. An aging, less productive population, higher production costs, and fleeing foreign investment all result in falling GDP.