Sudan literally cannot afford to militarily provoke Ethiopia even if Egypt partially bankrolls this campaign. This simple pragmatism might be the only thing stopping the scenario that was warned about in this analysis. Sudan’s false claims against Ethiopia over the weekend could have been a way of showing deference to its Egyptian patron even if Khartoum isn’t serious about attacking its neighbor like Cairo might want.
Sudan alleged over the weekend that the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and its allies killed six of its soldiers during an attack in a disputed border region. Ethiopian government spokesman Legesse Tulu denied the claims the day after and clarified that “A large group of insurgents, bandits and terrorists had entered [from Sudan]. The Ethiopian National Defense Force and the local militia have destroyed them.” Khartoum’s information provocation occurred right around the time that the ENDF liberated the town of Chiffra in northern Afar Region. This suggests that the two events might be connected, in particular, that Sudan sought to establish the pretext for possibly militarily provoking Ethiopia sometime in the coming future in order to save the TPLF on its Egyptian patron’s behalf.
